AI INNOVATION COULD INCREASE 10X BY 2030

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Seemingly impossible problems could be solved by software and other computational systems that learn and change by integrating new data. These evolving systems should transform work and accelerate computational technology’s integration into all economic sectors. The adoption of learning systems could prove more momentous than the introduction of the internet, transforming all economic sectors, including healthcare and financial services.

Concentrated computational infrastructure could allow every device to harness the power of supercomputers, enabling continuous, data-driven improvements on the software side. Best-in-class solutions are likely to accrue winner-take-most share in each vertical, as customer lockin drives superior economics. End user productivity should drive pricing, and should improve continuously based on data-informed solutions. Legacy software and hardware providers are likely to be vulnerable.

Humans could be enmeshing a constellation of connected devices that will inform us, entertain us, relate us, protect us, and mediate our perceptions of the world. Device constellations likely will be the dominant software development platforms, providing primary end-point distribution and productivity benefits. Legacy computation manufacturers and operating system providers could be in peril, along with media, entertainment, and content production companies with business models optimized for legacy distribution platforms.

Digital wallets allow anyone with a connected device to transact money instantly, transforming commercial and financial experiences. Consumers hold the power of a bank branch in their pockets and demand wholesale pricing for many financial transactions, changing their relationships with financial service providers. We believe that trillions in annual cash transactions will be digitized, presenting a data monetization opportunity roughly equivalent to that of Google Search. Digital wallets could become the point-ofcontact for a variety of digital services. Traditional financial services institutions could be at risk.

Internet of things could transform the distribution of media, providing end-users with new ways to interface with the world and capturing data-streams that enable the evolution of new business models and services. Consumer habits could be modified significantly and monetized in new ways. Voice interfaces should take share of e-commerce, digital mirrors should become fashion and exercise interfaces, and the age of linear TV could end. Digital distribution platforms are likely to accrue power as they promote private-label content and services.

All money and contracts could migrate to open-source protocols that enable and verify digital scarcity and proof-of-ownership. The financial ecosystem could be forced to reconfigure to take advantage of the capabilities these technologies afford, potentially leading to more transparency, fewer capital and regulatory controls, and significantly lower contract execution costs. More of everything could become money-like: fungible, liquid, quantifiable; every corporate entity and consumer will have to adapt; corporate structures might be called into question; every sector could be impacted.